Imagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is ...

At first glance, forecasting behavior might seem far-fetched—can we really predict how people will act? It's a fair question. But just as we once questioned whether we could reliably predict the ...

Corporate income tax (CIT) collections are among the most difficult revenues to forecast—even with adequate staffing, comprehensive data, and a stable tax design. In practice, forecasting units ...

If you’ve ever taken even a cursory glance at a hurricane forecast, you’ve seen some version of the “cone of uncertainty.” It sounds like some other-dimensional realm of indecision, but it’s a ...

An inverted rate yield curve – that is, a long-term interest rate that falls to or below the short-term interest rate – seems to have a track record of predicting recessions. The question of leading ...

Some of the most popular indicators for forecasting recession suggest that the US may be headed toward a prolonged downturn, if not in the next year, then in the next four. But, given these indicators ...